Israeli sources stated that despite the political and economic crisis that the Hebrew state is going through at the present time, in light of the existing differences within the coalition regarding the general budget, as well as the unprecedented health crisis due to what is considered a second wave of the outbreak of the Corona virus, but the matter will not deter it. On entering into a military confrontation with ” Hamas ” in Gaza, or “Hezbollah” in Lebanon if necessary.
“Israel Today” newspaper reflected this position, on Wednesday evening, with statements by two senior experts on national security affairs, who said that “Hamas” and ” Hezbollah ” are committing a serious strategic mistake, if they think that they can exploit the political and economic crisis in Israel.
The two experts indicated that “Hamas” wants to take advantage of the political crisis in Israel, which is pushing it to pay attention to the continuation of the calm, in order to force the Netanyahu government to continue coordination with Qatar regarding the funds it sends to the Strip, not only until the end of 2020, but until the end of next year, in exchange for a return. Calm down.
In their joint article in the newspaper, retired Brigadier General Yaakov Nagel, a former national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Jonathan Schenzer, an expert and researcher on economic terrorism issues, who worked at the US Treasury, indicated that the current period is witnessing the resurgence of the incendiary balloon phenomenon on the southern borders of Israel. What brought with it tension in the lives of residents of the settlements on the Gaza Strip.
They clarified that Israel is facing a political crisis that could lead to a fourth election, in light of the differences within the coalition over the general budget, in addition to the Corona crisis and its economic repercussions, such as: the rise in unemployment rates to 20%, and all of this is reflected in the Israeli army, which hopes to implement its new plans, This will only happen through a stable government.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz threatened a disproportionate response to the launching of the incendiary balloons, and Netanyahu yesterday considered that “the ruling of an incendiary balloon is equivalent to the ruling of launching a missile from Gaza,” without ruling out a return to the policy of organized assassinations against Hamas leaders.
They added that there is a possibility that the policy of “Hamas” makes sense; Because the overriding concern of Israel at the moment is the issue of Lebanon and Syria, that is, confronting Iranian influence, but the reality indicates that the Netanyahu government will not let Hamas dictate the rules of the game.
The two experts shed light on the new equation that Netanyahu referred to regarding dealing with the launching of incendiary balloons as a threat equivalent to launching missiles, and the atmosphere prevailing within the military establishment that the Israeli army should restore deterrence by sending decisive and decisive messages to the movement that controls Gaza, which is based on the situation. Based on the logic of “pain / benefit”, that is, the more Israel seeks to achieve its interests, the more it strikes against Hamas.
And they determined that the coming period may witness a military escalation with Gaza if Israel applies the new policy to an investigation of deterrence, as it is about to bomb the launchers of incendiary balloons just as they bomb cells that launch missiles
They pointed out that the situation in the north is more complex, in light of the great pressure that “Hezbollah” is facing against the backdrop of the Beirut port explosion on the fourth of this month, at a time when the organization was seeking to implement a retaliatory operation in the Shebaa Farms without success.
Hezbollah’s plans towards Israel have not changed – from the two experts ’point of view – even in light of the Lebanese street demonstrations against the organization, as its leadership believes that Israel“ will not respond to any provocation on its part, which is a big mistake in it, because Israel will not allow the development of an arsenal of missiles. Hezbollah or its increased accuracy, even if the situation in Lebanon was catastrophic after the bombing at the port
For years, Israel has adopted a theory based on not allowing Iran to establish its feet on the northern borders, and says that it will not show restraint in the face of a military presence of this kind in Syria, or terrorist military activities along its borders on the Golan Heights, or the transfer of advanced Iranian weapons through Syria to Lebanon. Israel says it reserves the right to respond, as it has repeatedly emphasized, based on the red lines it has set.
According to the two Israeli experts, Iran is currently dealing with caution pending the American elections and the possibility of the Democratic Party’s victory. Because the matter will affect the policy of tightening economic pressure that it is subjected to by the Donald Trump administration, and it currently prefers to preserve Hezbollah’s weapons stores in Lebanon in preparation for a decision to war with Israel.
On the other hand, the two experts say, “Hamas” constitutes an important strategic treasure for Iran, which it can use when necessary, while the Israeli army is currently working to restore balance and deter all pro-Iran arms, and push them to hesitate to enter a military confrontation with Israel
