On 2 November 2026, Brent crude slid 8.22% to $104.1 a barrel, marking the steepest decline since the start of the month. The drop coincided with rising optimism that diplomatic talks between Iran and Qatar could reduce the risk of conflict in the Hormuz corridor.
US West Texas Intermediate also weakened, falling $8.10 to $96.02, slipping just below the psychologically significant $100 level. Meanwhile, the UAE’s Murban crude experienced an even sharper fall of 11.29%, reaching $105.3 per barrel.
Analysts said the market reacted to a draft proposal that surfaced after Iranian negotiators left Qatar, suggesting a possible reopening of the strategic strait.
The price retreat erased much of October’s rally, during which Brent rose 13.6% and WTI climbed 15.2% after a tanker was struck in the Hormuz waterway. Despite the recent dip, physical supplies remain constrained, with OPEC output still more than three million barrels per day below pre‑war levels as of September.
OPEC+ left its December 2026 production targets unchanged, reinforcing the view that tight markets will keep crude prices elevated even after the current correction.
Experts cautioned that the optimism is based on a proposal, not a finalized agreement, and that any resurgence of tension—especially around the upcoming US midterm elections—could quickly reverse the price gains.
Cheaper oil may ease inflationary pressure for import‑dependent economies such as the Philippines, but the extent of relief will depend on whether lower futures translate into lower pump prices.
Market participants will be watching the next steps of the Iran‑Qatar mediation, any official announcement on Hormuz, and the political climate in the United States for further clues on oil’s direction.
